The landscape of prediction applications includes a variety of platforms designed to assist in forecasting across multiple fields. While these applications differ in their design, features, and user interactions, they all aim to harness the power of collective intelligence. Key Players:
PredictIt – this platform specializes in political events, allowing users to trade shares based on the outcomes of elections and legislative decisions.
Kalshi – a regulated prediction market in the U.S., Kalshi addresses a broad spectrum of subjects, ranging from financial markets to weather phenomena.
Polymarket – another platform utilizing blockchain technology, Polymarket provides markets on a variety of subjects, including current affairs, sports, and cryptocurrency trends.
The interest in prediction markets in WEB3 can be clearly traced by the rapidly increasing amount of funds held in Polymarket, the most popular on-chain prediction market protocol. Polymarket’s TVL grew from approximately $9 million at the beginning of this year to $92 million at its peak.
Distinctive Aspects of Prediction Applications
Prediction applications feature several distinctive aspects that differentiate them from conventional forecasting tools:
Decentralization. Platforms such as Augur and Polymarket leverage blockchain technology to provide transparency, security, and protection against manipulation.
Incentive Structures. Users are motivated financially to share accurate information, aligning their interests with the aim of precise predictions.
Varied Markets. These platforms encompass a broad range of subjects, including politics, finance, entertainment, and scientific advancements.
Accessibility. Many prediction markets are available to anyone with internet access, making forecasting tools more democratic.
